Predictive modelling is the use of automated tools to help identify people at risk early enough to allow for effective intervention. It relies on the combination of historical data around individuals and the application of modelling techniques to that data to help understand potential need for services.
The Government’s White Paper for Vulnerable Children noted that predictive modelling appeared promising based on preliminary research, but was at that time untried in the context of child maltreatment, carried ethical risks, and warranted careful, staged, development.
As a result a suite of three reports regarding the feasibility and ethics of applying Predictive Modelling to the prevention of child maltreatment have been undertaken to inform decisions about advancing Predictive Modelling to trial. The Feasibility Study and Ethical Reviews have been subjected to an extensive international and national expert peer review.
The papers, reports and studies have been canvassed throughout the professional community nationwide, being presented at Expert forums, Expert Advisory Groups and our Māori Reference Group over the last two years.
The conclusion is that while the application of Predictive Modelling to child maltreatment raises some significant ethical concerns, those concerns can either be significantly mitigated by appropriate implementation strategies or are plausibly outweighed by the potential benefits of such modelling.
As a result Predictive Modelling will be carefully tested to assess whether it can enhance decision-making at intake for children who are reported to Child Youth and Family because of concerns about abuse or neglect. The aim is to support, not replace, professional judgement.
Any testing will take place in a simulated intake setting, using historical case data before any decisions are made about trialling in a real-life setting.
This reflects the care with which Government and the Ministry is advancing on this front.