National School Roll Projections

Projections and forecasts of school rolls are used by the Ministry of Education to assess the demand for resources in the school sector. They support the forecasting of expenditure on teachers’ salaries, schools’ operations grants, and student allowances, as part of the Government’s five-year budget forecasts. The forecast rolls are snapshots; they project primary year-levels as at 1 July and secondary year-levels as at 1 March. The production of a range of projections allows for exploration of medium and long-term effects of different scenarios or assumptions, while forecasts (based on preferred projections) are a best estimate of enrolment numbers in the short term. These reports include a breakdown of the major changes between the current forecast and the previous forecast. A brief description of the methodology used in the forecast is also provided.